Each year, ice cream consumption and homicide rates tend to rise at shockingly similar rates. It begs the question: does ice cream really cause people to commit crimes? It should come as no surprise that the answer is no. This is a classic example of correlation, not causation – both ice cream sales and crime tend to rise when the temperature increases in the summer.

In addition to proving ice cream’s innocence, correlation vs. causation can also help us understand data from marketing campaigns. When looking into the analytics from your campaign, it can be easy to look at two seemingly related variables and assume a deeper meaning. However, unless you have found evidence of their direct relationship in a controlled setting, it’s risky to assume that one factor was the sole cause of your results.

The Effect of the Pandemic

This distinction between correlation and causation is especially important to remember as we come out of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the past year, many brands have seen increases in clicks to their website or online ordering systems. Since so many people were confined to their homes, it can be difficult to determine if your recent online ads targeting young moms and dads were successful because of your effective strategy, or because shopping online was consumers’ only option for months.

Even in non-pandemic times, you may still experience this dilemma when analyzing campaign data. If you discovered that women were more likely to click on your ads, are you certain it was because the offer was just more appealing to that group, or could you have unconsciously catered your message to them in some way?

With so many factors involved, it can be tricky to figure out whether there is a true relationship between your marketing campaign and its results. If you’re looking to find more certainty behind your marketing data, keep reading to learn our best strategies.

Isolate Factors

To determine whether the results of your marketing campaign were caused by your strategy or simply correlated due to other circumstances, start by isolating one factor you think may be producing the results. For example, if you think a boost in website traffic is due to a new call to action, create two versions of an ad that are otherwise identical except for the phrasing of your CTA. Run both versions of the ad on the same channels for the same amount of time to keep all other factors constant.

Once you’ve started running these controlled campaigns, track all the traffic to your website from both ads. Over time, you can compare the numbers to see which CTA is driving more traffic. By isolating and testing your message (or graphic, or color scheme, or whichever element you choose), you can learn if it’s working as effectively as you believe it is, or if an outside factor was influencing your results.

Review Data Across All Channels

On the other hand, you may also tend to jump to conclusions when campaigns underperform. If you notice a decline in redemptions or click-throughs from one particular channel, be sure to review the data from all your marketing methods before assuming one channel is no longer effective. You might be surprised to find that your other methods are playing a role in the results you see.

For example, if you suddenly see a decrease in conversions from your direct mail offers, it doesn’t necessarily mean that your customers aren’t purchasing from your brand anymore. Consider whether there are other sources that those same consumers may be finding more attractive offers for your product or service. If you’ve started sending out promotions to your email lists, and those campaigns are seeing a high number of conversions, it’s very possible that your same audience is still making their purchases. They’ve just switched their preferred source to find a better deal or more convenient access. However, if you can’t find increased numbers from any other channel, you might consider switching up your strategy to address overall declining conversions.

Take It One Step at a Time

As you implement new changes and try new strategies with your marketing and advertising, we recommend limiting your brand to one major change at a time. It may be tempting to institute a complete overhaul when inspiration strikes, but when you adjust multiple factors at once, it’s difficult to attribute the results. Are you receiving more click-throughs because the design is more eye-catching, the offer is more appealing, or the email subject line is more compelling?

Instead, if you stick to making one change at a time, you can perform an A/B test between the original and updated versions to assess whether the alteration is more effective. After your testing period, you can turn to the results and clearly determine which version performed better on your key performance indicators. Once you’ve formed a conclusion for the first factor, you can move on to testing the next one, and continue to improve your marketing messages over time.